Thursday, May 5, 2016

DDD---parabolic?

As I was scanning on finviz last night for todays trades I couldnt help but see many charts that looked to be quite extended to the downside. Many were on day 3 or 4. These chats immediately set off radars for parabolic long trades, A parabolic long trade is one that has been moving south for a a few days and has not bounced at all yet. I am not necessarily looking for a full on change of trend, but at least a bounce day. In my way of seeing things there are 2 ways of taking these trades. If the stock opens weak and moves down some more and then forms a higher low intraday that can be seen as a long or as I call it a 1,2,3 trade. This set up can potentially be quite risky because you still dont have a push or a move above an important level. What you are going by here is the notion that the stock is oversold and thus based on probabilities the reward is worth the risk. Most of the time it works , sometimes it does not. The second and safer of the two set ups is a move that actually breaks an important level, a resistance or a trendline and a pullback to test that level or near it. When this happens you can safely get in and since you have now been patient and waited for a change of trend you are now once again in with the trend on the intraday chart at least.  Here is a look at DDD on the daily at 2:24pm 5/5/16



This chart was quite extended as you see, even taking away todays candle. I had it on watch for a long at some point. I was looking for one of those 2 set ups. We opened weak and moved lower but the move lower was interrupted. DDD then tried to move down again and even though it moved to a new lower low there was a strong lower wick that closed the candle showing strength and that sellers may be overpowered at this stage. This is what i mean when i say the higher low set up or 1,2,3 , even though it was a small 1,2,3 set up it was one and thus it would have to be taken. It worked for a few minutes but then failed as we touched the bottom of the descending trendline which you will see below. Next DDD formed a lower high and faded back down to the LOD ( low of day). 

Depending on your risk tolerance you should choose which of these set ups you prefer. The more clear the set up looks such as maybe a strong support level or an area which has held plenty of times before I will tend to need less confirmation to enter a trade. However a stock like DDD even though it was extended it COULD have gone lower, it was not extended to the extreme. In this case maybe it is best to wait for confirmation of change and then ride the wave. I'm not saying you had to take the short once it hit the trendline , what i am saying is if you wanted to take it in the opposite direction then it better show you that it was ready 



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