Trade recap TASR---Is confirmation necessary

Today my trade recap is not going to be about a successful trade. Today I am going to discuss a trade from my watch list that I ended up stopped out of but it could've been much worse if I had become stubborn and stayed in it. This trade brings about the issue of entering a trade on confirmation or anticipating the move. When should one be used over the other. Todays trade is TASR from the watch list last night.

Last night if you remember I had TASR on for a long trade once it broke out of the pattern it was forming, here is another look at it

My idea was that it was going to break over the upper trendline I had drawn and I would enter at that spot. However sometimes I assume a stock is going to make a particular move due to the daily chart or 30 min set up and I try to anticipate the move it "will" make. This is used to try to enter a potential break out before the break out. Many times once the breakout happens people rush into it and you may end up chasing a stock. Let me show you where I entered and what happened next

So as you can see here, I entered following what I thought was a higher low set up for the push to new highs and the breakout over 30. This however did not come to pass as it failed to follow through and broke the trend  setting up for a nice short for the rest of the day. Could I have taken it short, sure, but as I mentioned at the start of my blogging, I am only looking for long set ups at the moment. So in this case would confirmation over 30 have been better? sure in hindsight confirmation on this play would have been much better. It also started the day weak and since this wasnt quite a R/G set up ( they need to have had a strong previous day to qualify for r/g) that was the first sign that i should wait some more to see if it would make the move over 30 or not.

The truth is when you are trading you are always anticipating something that "may" happen. Nothing is certain in trading, and the fact that I anticipated isnt a bad thing. What would have bad is if I had held as it went lower and lower. This trade in my view was not a mistake but a success since I got out when I had to get out. Keeping my loss to a minimum. Could I have waited for confirmation based on the look of the daily? sure, but if this had skyrocketed after my entry and i waited for confirmation, I wouldve been writing a blog called should I have anticipated lol  Hope you enjoyed this! If anyone has another take on this please comment below, I would love to learn other points of view